The Next Housing Bubble Is When?
I have been asked on several different occasions what I think about housing and the direction it's headed. I find most real estate agents will tell you what you need to here so they can get a sale; but that's not the type of agent anyone should be working with. So what is my housing prediction?
If you were to follow what the so called experts, like the National Association of Realtors, had to say last year about the housing market and purchased a home, you're not very happy today. Your new investment would have lost you roughly 8% in value. In other words, if you purchased a home for $200,000 last year (2010), it would now be worth $168,000. This means it cost you $1,333 per month to own your home and you haven't even made any mortgage payments yet. If you are one of those people who bought last year I'm afraid the news is not going to get any better moving forward.
For the past 3 years I have advised my clients not to purchase any real estate. Call me crazy but so far I have happy clients who decided to listen to a real estate veteran rather than a scripted beginner. I've saved them thousands of dollars because I am paying attention to what is going on in the world. Enough of the crazy, I bet you are ready for my prediction of best time to buy your next home. I better say sorry in advance because I'm not going to sound like the boneheads on TV, the no research newspapers, or the copy the news real estate agent blogger. It's not upbeat, fun, or exciting; but it will keep thousands of dollars in your pocket.
So here's what you do. Save your money for the next 2 years then re-evaluate. Yes, I said the next 2 years. I predict housing will decline at an average minimum of 1% a month for the remainder of 2011 and ALL of 2012. That is a whopping 18% from now until the end of 2012. Using that same $200,000 home mentioned above, my clients and members of my blog will be keeping an extra $48,000 in their wallet. Put this on top of the money you are already saving for your next home and who knows, maybe you will be one of those weird people and pay cash for your next house.
I have compiled all kinds of information to help me make my prediction. Some information is just common sense. For example, if the job market is not getting significantly better, then how can housing? No jobs, no income, no buyers (this means no renters as well). If food prices continue to climb people have less money- food comes before buying a home. Prices at the gas pump are much higher today than last year. If you can't get to work, then you don't eat. Once again the eating habit just keeps getting in the way. How about this one. Higher energy prices such as electricity, natural gas, etc… you guessed it, brings us back to that pesky eating thing again. Last of all, banks no longer allow you to borrow money unless you can prove you can pay them back. They will be looking for a paycheck – did we just come full circle?
If you're interested in seeing something really scary, take time out to read the book "The Coming Economic Armageddon". It's written by a New York Times best selling author. You can read my online review of the book here.
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I'm Todd Carrison. After being a real estate broker for one of the area's largest real estate companies and closing more than 1,000 real estate transactions, I've decided to teach you what other real estate agents simply won't.

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